Who I am Voting For....

I made this awesome cartoon to show who I'm going to vote for!

My artistic genius even surprises me sometimes...

Update: I spelled "racist" wrong =(.

Who I am Voting For....

I made this awesome cartoon to show who I'm going to vote for!

My artistic genius even surprises me sometimes...

US-Filipino Relations and China

This article does a good job explaining the situation regarding U.S.-Filipino Relations and China. Much more detailed than I would do in a blog post.

However, I want to stress a few points:

President Duterte strategy of flirting with China is potentially a pragmatic, calculated move. It reminds me of the Cold War where unaligned countries would play the U.S. and Soviets off each other to gain the best possible deals. Duterte may have judged that he can use the possibility of closer ties with China to get the U.S. to do more to support the Philippines.

Along the same line of thought, Duterte may have judged that if the U.S. doesn't step up its support to counter China, he might figure he should at least position the Philippines to benefit as much as possible from (unwillingly) being under China's sphere of influence.

Alternatively, President Duterte may just be a bit crazy, and/or perhaps has a personal issue with the U.S. His unusual behavior and unconventional diplomatic style leads me to believe a detailed leadership analysis could play a huge role in understanding intentions.

I think the article also does a good job of showing how Filipino public opinion regarding the U.S. and China is completely at odds with the President Duterte's rhetoric. Despite his popularity in the opinion polls, Filipinos are overwhelmingly pro-U.S., and I can't see the general population accepting a pivot towards China in the near future.

Also, the Filipinos speak English, not Chinese. This gives the U.S. a huge soft power advantage over China in the country.

Note: I'll come back and expand upon and clean this section up.

Job Search for the Generalist

I have been looking for "strategic alternatives" to my current employment for a while now, and I have discovered there is not much of a market for generalist, particularly at junior level positions. The algorithms used by online job applications to weed out the chaff are rarely impressed with the argument, "My wide array of interests and experiences position me well to specialize in whatever tasks required."

Truthfully, I don't blame the developers of these algorithms or recruiters. My argument is so abstract and intangible, it is a nightmare for statisticians to develop concrete indicators to output any value that provides a useful comparison between candidates. Think about it: how does a generalist go about proving they can thrive in a position despite having only a shallow understanding of the technical issues at hand?

WTF Venezuela

VIVA LA REVOLUTION!

Ah Venezuela... the most recent attempted at a socialist paradise. 

Also known as: the most recent attempted at a fundamentally flawed system. 

The Venezuelan Government's latest brilliant idea to... you know, make sure everyone doesn't starve, is using forced labor to increase food production.

Amnesty International reported: "The decree, officially published earlier this week, establishes that people working in public and private companies can be called upon to join state-sponsored organizations specialized in the production of food."

I talked to someone I know who grew up in the Soviet Union about Venezuela's food lines and forced labor initiative. He just laughed in a nostalgic manner, and said it reminded him of home. He also said it reminded him of why he got the heck out of the Soviet Union.

Classroom Environment

Prior to developing our analyst training program, I had the privilege of being sponsored for a full-time 10 week analyst training course to help us prepare curriculum.

 I found myself greatly disappointed.

The instructors covered a vast amount of information on virtually every major analysis discipline and topic. However, these well-meaning experts were so desperate to teach everything they thought was important, they forgot students might not be able to absorb it all in such a small span of time.

I calculated that my eyes glazed over roughly 5,000 PowerPoint slides in those 10 weeks. Unfortunately, the information overload resulted in me remembering very little.

As a result, I tell new instructors the worst thing they can do is drivel through hours of PowerPoint slides. Covering less information more thoroughly at a slower pace will insure important information sticks.

Our advice is to teach the core - see 'Like an Analyst" posts for specifics. In general, unless the job position is for something that requires years of specialized training (i.e. translator or highly technically oriented), new hires are almost always retrained by co-workers and mentors in the trenches to meet their specific needs.

Ahhh the Weasel Word

What is a weasel word?

Merriam-Webster Dictionary defines it as: A word used in order to evade or retreat from a direct or forthright statement or position

Some examples of weasel words I see regularly:

• Supports
• Appears
• Most
• Almost all
• Virtually
• May
• Possibly

Somewhat of a “third rail” for analysts, I have found that many instructors we hire side-step the issue of weasel words all together due to (in my opinion) the political ramifications and sensitivity of there use. The problem is that because analysis is by definition not fact, using weasel words are almost always required for analytical products (see how I used almost there?) At the same time, consumers of analysis tend to dislike weasel words because perfect information is preferable to conjecture when making tough decisions.