US-Filipino Relations and China

This article does a good job explaining the situation regarding U.S.-Filipino Relations and China. Much more detailed than I would do in a blog post.

However, I want to stress a few points:

President Duterte strategy of flirting with China is potentially a pragmatic, calculated move. It reminds me of the Cold War where unaligned countries would play the U.S. and Soviets off each other to gain the best possible deals. Duterte may have judged that he can use the possibility of closer ties with China to get the U.S. to do more to support the Philippines.

Along the same line of thought, Duterte may have judged that if the U.S. doesn't step up its support to counter China, he might figure he should at least position the Philippines to benefit as much as possible from (unwillingly) being under China's sphere of influence.

Alternatively, President Duterte may just be a bit crazy, and/or perhaps has a personal issue with the U.S. His unusual behavior and unconventional diplomatic style leads me to believe a detailed leadership analysis could play a huge role in understanding intentions.

I think the article also does a good job of showing how Filipino public opinion regarding the U.S. and China is completely at odds with the President Duterte's rhetoric. Despite his popularity in the opinion polls, Filipinos are overwhelmingly pro-U.S., and I can't see the general population accepting a pivot towards China in the near future.

Also, the Filipinos speak English, not Chinese. This gives the U.S. a huge soft power advantage over China in the country.

Note: I'll come back and expand upon and clean this section up.