Reunification of the Koreas Part 1: HA! Good Luck...

I've read that the most successful blogs tend to focus on one specific topic. Therefore, it makes complete sense for me to write about North Korea next! I mean, I covered the environment. I covered Syria. Therefore discussing my boy Kim Jong-Un is the logical next posting... yes, that makes total sense. That's my story and I'm sticking with it.

                                          Kim Jong-Un is about to go ham on that concrete wall... Karate Chop!

I've always had a certain fascination with North Korea, and if you search YouTube for videos and documentaries on the Hermit Kingdom, its obvious I'm not alone. 

Perhaps its one of those "forbidden fruit" complexes since we have such little contact and information on the country. Some of you guys (and girls?) out there know - a girl (or guy?) can potentially be more attractive when dressed modestly then if they wear some of the more... risque outfits that pop up on a Saturday night.

Imagination is a powerful tool =].

A more politically correct answer is the fascinating sharp contrast between fiction and the reality of North Korean society. I bet visiting North Korea is like going to a Renaissance fair on steroids... with the absence of crappy mead and the addition of fear and death.

Anyways, enough intro-Drivels. Time to get into the meat - or beans if your a vegetarian.

Koreas and Germany

For decades, much of the Western World dreamed of a democratically elected unified Korea. However, the West knew that this was unlikely. People tend to only recall the communist dictatorship in the North. What is often forgotten today is that South Korea was anything but a democracy prior to 1987. Nevertheless, due to successes in the reunification of West and East Germany following the Cold War, South Korea and the West became more optimistic that a united Korea was possible.

Unfortunately, it soon became clear that the Korean situation was very different from Germany's - decades of brainwashing, virtually zero contact, despotism, and memories of a brutal civil war tend to effect relationships for some reason.

Official doctrine in both Koreas still supports reunification. However, South Korean officials and analysts are becoming increasingly hesitant to support a united Korea, particularly in the last decade, due to the costs and practical realities of integrating one of the poorest, autocratic countries in the world with a highly developed post-industrial free nation.

Cost

One of the biggest problems of reunification is costs. South Korean analysts have put the cost of reunification at $500+ billion. By utilizing my handy ultra-complex formula of converting government stated costs into realistic costs, the situation looks a lot bleaker:

Variables:

Government stated Cost (GC)

GC = $500+ billion

Low Realistic Cost (LRC):    
LRC = GC x 2.0

High Realistic Cost (HRC):
HRC = GC x 3.0

LRC = $500+ billion x 2.0 = $1 trillion

HRC = $500+ billion x 3.0 = $1.5 trillion

Therefore, the actual cost of reunification is at least $1-1.5+ trillion. To put this into perspective South Korea's GDP in 2014 was ~$1.4 trillion. If compared to the US in terms of GDP, the cost of reunification would be the equivalent of almost DOUBLING the national debt.

China

Another major hurdle towards reunification is China. They have long supported North Korea for the practical purpose of forming a useful buffer against US military bases and pro-US South Korea. 

China understands well that if North and South reunify via a Northern collapse, the South will dominate Northern politics. Due to the South's close relationship with the US, its virtually inevitable that the U.S. military would have easy access to the China-Korea border - something that would be very unnerving to China. 

For Americans, it would be the equivalent of China putting major military bases right across the border in Mexico. Not so pleasant to think about, yes?

There is also a precedent for major Chinese military involvement in the Koreas. During the Korean War, South Korea and its US ally were caught off-guard when a few million Chinese soldiers joined the North Koreans in pushing back US/South Korean advances.

While I'd like to think we could avoid war this time, if only because China, North Korea, and the US all have nuclear weapons, there is little to suggest China would sit idle while North Korea falls apart.

In practice, if the North Korean Regime begins to fall apart, I suspect we would see Chinese military involvement under the guise of a "peacekeeping force." In such a situation, North Korea would become a modern day Vichy France.

Culture and the Younger Generation

Much harder to quantify are questions on whether South Koreans want to reunify at all. Opinion polls are suggesting younger South Koreans don't particularly see reunification as a national priority. A lot of this probably stems from how far removed the younger generation is from the Japanese Occupation and the Korean War. There is no reason to think this trend won't continue.

Additionally, while North Koreans have spent decades in poverty, stagnation, and isolation, South Korean culture has evolved significantly, highly influenced by Western values and cultural norms. The two Korea's cultures have likely diverged to the point where young South Koreans relate more with Americans and Japanese than with North Koreans. For example, while I'm playing Starcraft II online with my South Korean friends, the vast majority of North Koreans have likely never used a computer.

At the end of the day, a South Korean youth will probably ask: "How does the insurmountable challenge of reunification help me find a job?"

Brainwashing

None of the concepts in this post are particularly original- some of them were being talked about decades ago. Nevertheless, I think it gives a good overview of the difficulties of reunifying the Korean Peninsula. However, the post is missing one of the biggest hurdles toward reunification:

How to counter the brainwashing of North Koreans who have lived under the Kim Regime for almost 70 years?

I was going to write about my epic, innovative solution to this hurdle in this post, but I'll be posting a part two to prevent this from becoming a 10 page essay. As a sneak peak, consider the US Occupation of Japan =].