Thursday, July 14, 2016

"Context"... Like an Analyst?

I've been trying to think of a synonym for "Context" that still follows the nifty "Like an Analyst" theme. Using "Context" Like an Analyst simply doesn't make sense. Hmmm.... if you have any ideas, let me know. I think I need a verb.

Anyways, what does "context" mean? My favorite definition comes from the Merriam-Webster's dictionary:

Context: "The interrelated conditions in which something exists or occurs"

"Context" within the context (lol) of analysis can be summed up with the classic, yet to-vague-to-be-helpful saying: "see beyond the tree and into the forest." That is, understanding the broader strategic implications more localized analyses/data may influence or be influenced by. Context is particularly important for synthesizing the "why" when conducting analysis.

The following is an example we share with students to help explain why Context is important for technical oriented analysts:

A well versed technical analyst might be able to tell me all about the aircraft carrier China is/has refurbished. They can tell me its theoretical capabilities such as: How many and what type of planes can be stationed on it? What is its range and crew size? What type of weapons does it have on it?

This is important stuff, but by itself, it offers little value to policymakers. An analyst must also be able to answer: "That's cool, but what might China use the aircraft carrier for? Is it a threat to the US?"

To answer these questions (and more), the analyst requires Context  - Where does the aircraft carrier fit into China's short and long term strategic objectives? How do the capabilities, limitations, and doctrine of China's larger military structure affect the ships abilities and how it may be deployed?

Perhaps something a little more specific and relevant: Based on what you know about its technical capabilities, how might this aircraft carrier influence the situation in the South China Sea?

We found teaching context to technical oriented students very challenging because every situation essentially becomes a "Chicken or the Egg" condition - if we want students to understand Context for the Greek Financial Crisis, we have to discuss the larger global 2007-08 Financial Crisis, the European Union, the Euro, sovereign debt, Northern vs Southern Europe economic and cultural conflict, International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, etc. Even then, how do you explain the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank without mentioning the United Nations?

The Greek Financial Crisis might not be a great example for technical oriented analysis. Therefore lets consider South Korean - Japanese relations. From a technical perspective, it makes sense for the two post-industrialized democracies to develop weapon systems together in order to counteract North Korea and China. Without Context, the analyst might scratch their heads when they find out how little they do together despite their closely aligned strategic goals.

With Context, the analyst would understand how South Korea and Japan have a history of hatred and distrust compliments of a nasty Japanese occupation and sexual trafficking on an industrial scale (Comfort Women). South Korea thinks Japan STILL hasn't properly taken responsibilities for its crimes - which to be fair, South Korea has a point.

This is not easy stuff for students that have previously had little training or interest in Context. We have discovered that having students follow and discuss current events regularly is a reasonably effective and practical means to learn Context material.

Example Lesson

To help facilitate and improve the students' learning experience for Context, we put a giant jury-rigged magnetic map on our wall where students can stick small individual replicas (missiles, terrorists, bombs, politicians, etc.) on to help visualize how events interrelate.

See President Obama on there? Derp, Derp...

We spend a significant amount of time every week going over the news in which students put pieces on the map to represent particular current events.  It's not perfect or all inclusive, but it is useful for visualizing some of the relationships between different powers in the Region. The example below is of North/South Korea(s) along the 38th Parallel:


We've also had students do some interesting webs that show how certain events, countries, and other actors all relate to each other. The picture below is a partly completed web showing relationships relating to the Middle East.


Context can be hard to teach, particularly when working with students that are essentially starting from scratch. It's not something that can be covered in a crash course in two or three classes. The biggest mistake an instructor can do is to push students to learn to much, to fast and overload them with information. Context is not an equation you can memorize or a list of logical rules. It is something that is gained over time through experience, dedication, and a lot of reading.


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